Mapping & MoltingA Perspective on the AI Economy
Six essays on Artificial Intelligence, technological transitions, and disciplined investing.
Mapping & Molting is a six-part series about investing through a technological transition. How new structure gets built, financed, priced, and misread while it is happening. Artificial intelligence is the current case study and a similar lens could have been used to look at railroads, electrification, and the internet.
The series does not try to predict where AI ends up. It follows one question across six essays: when a transition is real but unevenly priced, what kind of knowledge can an investor actually have? The essays build toward a framework, not a forecast. A way of reading where a transition stands and when its core question has changed.
Is AI a Bubble? Or Is the Economy Molting?
A bubble implies the inside is empty. There is another word for this moment, and it changes the question worth asking.
Read the essay →Beers and Sears†
The railroad boom made fortunes for some who never laid a foot of track. The names change. The roles repeat.
Read the essay →It Wasn't the Motor, It Was the Floor Plan
The electric motor was available for thirty years before the productivity showed up. What finally changed was not the technology.
Read the essay →Amazon and Pets.com†
In 1999 the two companies were telling the same story. Only one of them was Amazon.
Read the essay →A New Shell
Even if it is a bubble, the more useful question is what remains when it pops. History has an answer.
Read the essay →A Map is not a Prediction.
Every transition tempts investors to find the answer. The work is noticing when the question changes. That is what a map is for.
Read the essay →Follow the series
The essays publish in sequence. If you would like the next one when it arrives, leave an email. Nothing else comes with it.
The method in practice
Where the thinking gets applied
These essays are the method. Its application is the AI Value Chain Strategy, an actively managed approach built around the same premise: that value migrates across a transition, and the work is knowing where it sits and when it moves. If the essays fit the way you think, the strategy page explains how it works in practice, what it costs, and who it is for.
Explore the AI Value Chain Strategy →† For general educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. References to specific companies or individuals are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations. Nothing in this series should be interpreted to state or imply that past results or historical patterns are an indication of future performance.